Slide 1

Historical Climate Changes
Climate changes over the last 1000 years have been smaller than those over tectonic, orbital, and glacial-age millennial time scales, never exceeding 1°C on a global basis.
Climate changes over the last several thousand years have been highly variable in pattern from region to region.
Over much of this interval, records of climate are based on geochemical and geological indicators stored in annually layered archives: mountain glaciers, tree rings, and corals.
Also available are historical observations recorded by humans.

Major Climate Variations Events
Longer Time Scales
      Cooling during the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1400-1900)
      Warming in the twentieth century
Decadal Time Scales Climate Variability
      Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Interannual Time Scale Climate Variability
      El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
      North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The Little Ice Age
Medieval Climate Optimum: A relatively warm climate near 1000 to 1300.
Little Ice Age: The cooling during 1400-1900 that seriously affect Europe.
Twentieth-Century Warming

What Caused the Little Ice Age?
The Little Ice age cooling was simply the culmination of a slow orbital-scale cooling.
      If this is true, the medieval optimum warm interval may have been just an insignificant blip during an ongoing cooling trend.
The Little Ice Age was the most recent in a series of distinct millennial oscillations.
      If this is true, the medieval optimum and preceding centuries may represent the warm extreme of a millennial oscillation, with a shift toward the cool extreme during the Little Ice Age.

What Caused the Twentieth-Century Warming?
The warming is a result of human impacts
     This explanation will be true if the warming of the twentieth century has been unprecedented in magnitude over the last 1000 year or more of recent climate history.
The warming is part of the natural variability
     This explanation will be true if comparable warm intervals occurred   before or even during the Little Ice Age.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
“Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a decadal-scale climate variability that describe an oscillation in northern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs).
PDO is found to affect  Alaska salmon production cycles.
PDO is found to link to the decadal variations of ENSO intensity.

Decadal Variations

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is a interannual (year-to-year) climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
ENSO is found to have profound impacts on global climate.

PDO and ENSO

1997-98 El Nino

1982-83 El Nino

El Nino Comparisons

Walker Circulation and Ocean Temperature

Walker Circulation and Ocean Temperature

Walker Circulation and Ocean

Walker Circulation and Ocean Temperature

Walker Circulation and Ocean

Slide 19

Walker Circulation and Ocean Temperature

Walker Circulation and Ocean

Slide 22

Slide 23

Walker Circulation and Ocean Temperature

Walker Circulation and Ocean

Slide 26

Slide 27