Lecture 13: IPCC Summary For PolicyMakers: WG1-Science

IPCC Web Site

Structure of IPCC 1997 - 2001

Slide 4

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report

Slide 6

Understand and Project Our Climate System

Major Conclusions in SPM

Evidences of Global Warming and Other Changes

The Land and Oceans Have Warmed

Global Surface Temperature

Compared to the Past 1000 Years

Global Sea Level Has Risen

Precipitation Patterns Have Changed

Other Climate Changes

Slide 16

Slide 17

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Radiative Forcing

Slide 20

Increase of CO2 Concentration

Slide 22

Increase of N2O Concentration

Increase of Methane Concentration

Halocarbon Concentration

Ozone Concentration

Anthropogenic Aerosols

Radiative Forcing

Natural Factors of Radiative Forcing

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Slide 31

More Confidence in Climate Models

Evidence of Global Warming

Slide 34

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

Projected CO2 Emissions

Projected CO2 Concentration

Projected Aerosol (SO2) Emissions

Projected Global Temperature

The projected warming is very likely to be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years….

Global Distribution of The Warming

Projected Precipitation

Projected Extreme Events

Projected El Nino Activity

Projected Monsoon Variability

Projected Thermohaline Circulation

Projected Snow/Ice Cover

Projected Sea-Level Change

Sea Level Change and Global Warming

Global Warming and Sea-Level Change