ESS11
Prof. Jin-Yi Yu
ENSO Forecasting
q1984 – Physical Ocean Model (Inoue and Q’Brien)
q                 attained some skill in predicting the onset of major ENSO
q                 events at lead times of a few months.
q1987 – Simplified but fully physical coupled atmosphere-ocean model
q1992 – Fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model
q1994 – Integrate data assimilation techniques into coupled GCM
q                  forecasting system
Despite the significant progress in ENSO prediction, little is Known about the predictability limits of ENSO.