Cameron Dong Dissertation Defense

Title: Variability of subseasonal and seasonal teleconnections that affect wintertime Southwestern United States Precipitation

Abstract: The Southwestern United States (SWUS) is a region with large intraseasonal and interannual variance in wintertime precipitation. However, forecasts of subseasonal and seasonal SWUS precipitation lack sufficient skill to aid water managers and other decision makers. The primary goal of this dissertation is to identify and analyze the atmospheric circulation patterns and teleconnections that lead to subseasonal, and to a lesser extent seasonal, SWUS wintertime precipitation. Specifically, this thesis aims to (i) ascertain model biases that affect the teleconnections and thus forecast skill, (ii) assess SWUS precipitation sources of predictability and potential predictability limits, and (iii) estimate the role of climate change in modulating the teleconnections over the historical period and into the future. To accomplish this, I utilize data from both ensemble climate experiments and subseasonal hindcast experiments, which I compare with observations and reanalysis.